Biomedical Education Poster Session

Joseph Baker
jbaker@hms.uq.edu.au

It has been a pleasure "arguing" with you. �You have given me some things to ponder, which is what we are here for.

Thanks,

joe baker

On Tue Dec 15, grover wrote
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>Dr. Baker: When Heisenberg introduced the principle of uncertainty, he was asked but can your theory tell us exactly where the electron is at a given time. �His response was that his theory did not ask these questions. �His theory is based on probability densities and so is the information you get from the associative analysis. �You have a certain chance that it would happen - I suppose you can call it a prediction if you wish. �Why not, so many psychics are predicting things and so many journalists predict election results. �US elections surprised them and the last Quebec elections surprised them.
>I wonder if it is purely semantics or if there is some substance in it. Perhaps some mathematicians rather than statisticians (I don't trust them) have looked at this problem.
>akg
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>On Mon Dec 14, Joseph Baker wrote
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>>Dr. Grover,

>>While regression analysis is indeed a measure of association, its use as a predictive tool in the social sciences is not without precedent. �In fact, independent variables in social science research are commonly known as "predictor variables" in regression analysis.
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>>Rather than continue our discussion of the semantics of the word "predictive" and my "far fetched" results, I would draw your attention to a number of texts written by persons much more learned on the subject than I. �

>>Harrison, and Tamaschke (1984) Applied Statistical Analysis. �Prentice-Hall. Pgs 317-320. �

>>Williams (1979). �Reasoning with Statistics. �Holt-Rinehart-Winston. Pgs. 137-147.

>>My apologies for not having more up to date references. �These just happened to be two texts that were within reach.

>>On Mon Dec 7, grover wrote
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>>>Dr. Baker: �I disagree with you in that correlation and regression analysis are predictive. �Mind you I am not questioning their usefulness as a tool to understand potential mechanisms but merely questioning the use of an associative tool for its predicability. �Essentially, for a predictive measure, if you were given the known variable, would you be able to predict the outcome.

>>>On Sun Dec 6, Joseph Baker wrote
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>>>>Dear Dr. Grover,

>>>>Thanks for the comments on the study. �I hope you are enjoying the conference and I would enjoy hearing your suggestions for reasons why the results came out as they did. �I must disagree with your suggestion that correlation and regression analyses are not predictive. �Don't both these analysis techniques provide a measure of how well an outcome (i.e., binge drinking) can be predicted based on knowledge of an independent variable (sensation seeking or general self-efficacy)? �As to your comment about peer pressure, I whole heartedly agree. �That is likely a variable of significant influence. �However, regardless of peer pressure, the moderating relationship for self-efficacy held for marijuana use and sensation-seeking only suggesting that there is something unique about this relationship. �Certainly this area needs further examination.

>>>>On Fri Dec 4, grover wrote
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>>>>>Dr. Baker: I am glad to see your nice presentation and hope you enjoy the meeting. �I found your conclusions on predictability a little far fetched. �The last time checked, correlation was not a predictor. �It is hard to say whether the binge drinking affects self efficacy or vice-versa. �Also, there is big parameter missing in this analysis - peer pressure.
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